Aluminum Industry Development Status and Prospects
In the 21st century , China's aluminum industry showed rapid development momentum. 2000 to 2011 , China's output of 4.328 million tons of alumina increased to 34.078 million tons , 2.794 million tons of electrolytic aluminum increased to 17.786 million tons , an increase of 6.87 -fold and 5.37 -fold. China has become the aluminum production, processing power. But China's aluminum industry, there are many problems, such as overcapacity, high dependence on foreign raw materials , sophisticated processing technology still lags behind the world advanced level and so on.
The status quo of China's aluminum industry
1 , with the rapid development of overcapacity
China's aluminum industry in the 21st century has experienced a period of rapid development. 2000 to 2011 , average annual growth rate of China's alumina and aluminum production reached 21% and 18%. The rapid development of the aluminum industry, aluminum demand to ensure that the national economy, but due to excessive investment proceeds, and the demand by the economic slowdown and other factors affecting growth weak in recent years, China's aluminum industry serious excess capacity . It is estimated that by the end of 2011 , the country has formed a production capacity of 52.2 million tons of alumina / year, electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 25.5 million tons / year of aluminum capacity of 32 million tons / year, compared with production in 2011 of alumina , aluminum , aluminum production capacity utilization rate is only 65 %, 70 % and 87.5 %. In fact the aluminum industry has been the rapid development of the aluminum supply exceeds demand , the price of aluminum ( 15280,15.00,0.10 % ) in the doldrums, the aluminum business difficulties .
2 , severe dependence on foreign raw materials
The total reserves of bauxite resources close to 40 million tons, but still can not meet the domestic demand for raw aluminum industry. In 2000 , only 2.794 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production , aluminum self-sufficiency rate of 71 %. However, the rapid development of aluminum production capacity , alumina quickly in short supply. In 2004, China's production of aluminum electrolytic aluminum production can only meet the needs of 49%. In recent years, China's alumina production has improved alumina self-sufficiency rate to 90 percent in 2011 , a decrease in imports . At the same time , the problem of insufficient bauxite prominent . 2006 to 2011 , China's bauxite production can only meet about 40% of domestic demand. In 2011, China imported 45.23 million tons of bauxite , alumina 1.88 million tons , aluminum up to 61.5% dependence on foreign raw materials .
3 . Rationalize the industrial structure
At present , China's aluminum industry, a lot of technology in the world leading level. From the technical point of view of energy-saving aluminum , shaped cathode cell , the new structure diversion tank , the current efficiency and energy saving control technology is widely used ; major Prebaked become mainstream , the world's first one 500kA prebaked aluminum has been in Citylink branch into industrial production. 2011 national average electricity consumption of 13,900 aluminum degrees , close to the world's best level. Aluminum industry concentration greatly improved by the end of 2011 , aluminum production capacity of the top ten companies accounted for 64.36% total capacity of total capacity . On the elements of the configuration , but also the development of aluminum production to energy-rich western region and inexpensive .
Future changes in factor analysis
1 . The cost impact of aluminum price
Aluminum production costs , the electricity and alumina are two blocks. Calculated at the current market situation , more than 50% of total electricity production costs , accounting for more than one-third of alumina . Tariff rise in long-term process , it will put pressure on the operating costs of electrolytic aluminum enterprises.
2 . Bauxite exporter Policy
High dependence on imports of bauxite , bauxite supply stability in the country is heavily dependent on exports of bauxite policy . Our bauxite imported mainly from Indonesia, Australia, Fiji , Jamaica and other countries , including Indonesia, the largest share of this year, accounting for 75 % of all 1-8 months of imports . But Indonesia's bauxite export policy change, from this year on May 1 , including bauxite , including the ban on the export of unprocessed metal ores, although some later allowed to export , but to impose higher export taxes .
3 . Domestic demand is dependent on the economic boom conditions
Aluminum as an important foundation for industrial raw materials, widely used in various fields of national economic construction and economic boom conditions directly affect the domestic demand for aluminum . Currently construction, transportation , electrical, mechanical industry, are the four pillar industries in domestic demand for aluminum products , 68% of total demand , the impact of the situation of these four sectors of the economy demand for aluminum is most important. China's economic growth rate tends to slow down since 2011 after over a fairly long period of time, China's domestic demand for aluminum is unlikely to achieve rapid growth.
4 . Effect of aluminum export trade protectionism
At present, China has become one of the world's leading supplier of aluminum production , aluminum exports but encountered some importing countries the impact of trade protectionism . In recent years, the United States on China's non-ferrous metal products continue to launch anti-dumping investigations , India, Australia , Colombia , Europe and so on aluminum exports to China to set anti-dumping, countervailing and other trade barriers . China's exports of aluminum products has been affected, and this state has a tendency of further development.
China's aluminum industry development results significantly , but the overcapacity problem is more serious for the greater need of the situation so that product prices low, aluminum business losses. To solve this problem, the growth of domestic demand is an important direction of the aluminum industry itself must also be made to limit the growth of production capacity, and moderately accelerate the elimination of excess capacity. Meanwhile, China's aluminum industry must continue to improve the technical level , efforts to reduce costs in order to cope with rising energy prices , and the business strategy of the possible shortage of bauxite ready .